Over the last few years the universe has suddenly became a very dangerous place for any life form to live in, and this includes us.  It has always been like that of cause, but we just didn?t know.
For thousands and thousands of years mankind has looked on the heavens as a static star filled dome, with only the odd comet and the planets drifting across the night time sky.  Meteors where a mystery like thunder and lighting.
The sun and the stars formed the base for the calendar because they where consistent and reliable.  Every year the same constellations filled with the same stars would show themselves again above the horizon so that farmers would knew when to plant the seeds for next years crop.  Nothing changed from year to year but the weather.
Comets

Only a few years ago we knew nothing of Earth crossing asteroids and comets, chaos theory, gamma ray bursts and other nasty things the universe can throw at us.  We all lived in peace with the universe content in the knowledge that life had gone on for thousands of years without any problems from outer space!
The recent impacts of the little comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 crashing into Jupiter causing Earth size blemishes on that planet?s clouds have, maybe, at last brought home to the general public that perhaps the Earth is in danger of being hit by an object someday.  Just consider the panic if the comet Hale-Bopp had been just a few months (three or four) earlier on its 3,500+ year orbit.  It could have passed us only 3,000,000 miles inside our orbit.  What a sight that would have been!

The recent scare of the newly discovered Dooms-Day asteroid 1997 XF11, which was found to be in an Earth crossing orbit and on 2028 Oct 26 would pass very close to the Earth made the headlines around the world.  For a short while it seemed to be coming very close, within the orbit of the moon.  But now that more data has been collected on its orbit by spotting it on older photographs, so that a better orbit fit could be predicted, it appears it will miss us by over half a million miles.
Still it made people think.  People with the money and power realise that even they will be in the same boat as the rest of us if a large object hits Earth.  And no one knows just what is out there.

Asteroids

For only now in the last few decades has mankind realized how near we have come to destruction.  Only recently have we had the technology to find the small bodies whizzing around in the solar system and map their orbits.  Only now have we the computers to calculate quickly the orbits of the tiny streaks of light found on the photographic plates and fit them into the known solar system.  How many asteroids are out there?  Anybody?s guess is as good as anyone else.  We don?t know.  More are found almost every night by the NASA Space Guard program, in the last few months 3,000 more asteroids have been added to the list.

One of the problems is that these tiny bodies don?t follow exactly the path calculated for them after they have been discovered.  All the other planets in the system pull on them subtlety and because they have such a small mass they are easily moved.  A small alteration in the orbit will eventually lead to a shift in the predicted position and over time, just a few orbits unseen because we are far from it or on the other side of the sun, it is lost again.  It must be remembered that we are talking about thousands of these objects which with present day technology can only be seen during darkness when fairly close to Earth.  We can?t see them very well, if at all, if they are orbiting inside our own orbit.  They are small, most are very dark, so don?t reflect much light, and hide in the zodiacal light.

With the coming of the new satellites observing the sun such as the SOHO spacecraft, astronomers have been surprised how many comets they have detected crashing into the sun, ones we have never seen!  In 1910 Comet Halley passed between Earth and the sun and no sign of it was detected even though the time of passage was known and was looked for.  So what chance would we have of a comet coming at us from out of the sun?

Supernova

Other problems have started to raise their heads in the distance universe.  Supernova can fry us if too close.  When the light pulse reached us in February 1987 from the supernova in the Large Magellanic Cloud it was followed very closely by trillions upon trillions of neutrinos which passed through every one on the planet.  Only a dozen or two registered in detection equipment.  The rest swept through Earth as if it was a sheet of glass.  But this supernova was 150,000 light years away.  Suppose it was only 100 light years, well I wouldn?t be writing this and you wouldn?t be reading it.  The solar system would be sterile.  The radiation from an explosion of that magnitude would be fatale to all life within about 250 light years of the star.

What might help is the Earth?s magnetic field, this would protect us from a lot of the charged particles by directing them away from the surface and trapping them in the Van Allan Belts.  But the really powerful particles, the high energy cosmic rays and gamma particles which do the damage would not be so easily detracted by Earths magnetic field and would reach us through the atmosphere.  Any supernova within say 1,000 light years would cause eyesight problems to anyone daft enough to look at it through a telescope, it would be like looking down a laser beam.   The light energy in the explosion would light up the night sky of all the planets within hundreds of lightyears.

Over the period of time that the Earth has existed, a nova or a supernova must have happened near by once or twice in the distance past.  Maybe this caused one or more of the mass extinctions which have occurred in the last billion years.  During these episodes 85% to 95% of the different species alive at that moment have disappeared within a short space of time.

Dust

One of the problems with extinctions in the distant past is that no effects (luckily for us), remain from such catastrophes, to tell us what did the killing.  Mind you, I heard the other day that we are killing off different species almost as fast as it has ever happened!!!

Most of the extinctions have happened at regular intervals of around 200 million years, this happens to be the average amount of time when the sun along with the Earth travels into one of the spiral arms of our galaxy as we orbit around.  These arms are more crowded with stars and dust than the place we now occupy between the Perseus and the Sagittarius arms.  When we travel through an arm the sun and planets would sometimes be bombarded with dust and debris from clouds in the arms.  These are the clouds in which stars form and many are light years wide, dense enough to diminish the light from the sun in some patches, so causing cooling to the Earth to say nothing of the amount of meteoric material falling into the atmosphere.

Once in an arm the density of stars in the night sky would increase with some coming closer than the ones today.  Many more stars would be visible to our human eyes in the night sky with new constellations to name.  That is unless we happened to be in a dust cloud when the night sky would be very boring to say the least!  Even through the galactic arms appear bright and thick with stars, the danger of a collision or near miss is extremely slight.  Stars are very small relative to the amount of space around then.  But the biggest factor would be the amount of bright blue stars shining near by.  These are what makes the spiral arms so visible in other galaxies along with the star forming regions.  In these regions are the nova and supernova we observe in distant galaxies owing to the higher star density and the effects of shock waves on the interstellar material.  Luckily for us this is still a long way into the future.

Gamma-Rays

A new threat lies with the recently discovered gamma rays bursts.  Since 1973 it has been known that flashes of intense gamma-ray radiation happen in space.  The Compton Gamma Ray Observatory has seen hundreds of these bursts from every possible direction which implies they all lie in the far universe at huge distances from us in space and time.  As of now we have no idea as to the cause of this radiation which in some cases lasts for only a few seconds before it disappears.  Theories abound of collapsing black holes, neutron stars colliding, but none can generate the kinds of energy seen, ie. the output of billions of galaxies from a single point.  If this energy was released in the centre of our galaxy or a near one we would be fried to a burnt crisp in seconds.  A charming thought to end on.

The Moon & The Apollo Missions
by J. Workman

The Moon is the sixth largest satellite in the solar system.  lt is one quarter the diameter of the Earth and eighty times less massive.  The surface gravity is one sixth that of our own world, so if you stood on the Moon you would weigh six times less.
The Moons surface is peppered with impact craters of varying size, with the largest being over 200 miles across.  There are long snaking rift valleys, one called Schröter?s Valley is about two hundred miles long and several miles wide and at least a mile deep.

Many impressive mountain ranges skirt the surface.  The highest of these are the Apennine mountains, which border the Sea of Rains (Mare Imbrium).  This is unusual because most of the other satellites in the solar system have fairly smooth surfaces.
The large seas on the Moon are impact basins, which have been filled in by lava.  This lava appears rather runny and is not at all like the more viscous lavas of the Earth, Venus and Mars. Evidence for volcanism has been shown, so it is certain that this process took place on the Moon very early on in its history.  The lunar maria is testament to that.

Structurally the Moon has a crust of light silicate rock, with a mantle of heavy silicate material.  There is no direct evidence for an iron core, because the Moon appears to lack a magnetic field.  The overall density of the Moon is roughly three and a half times denser than water.  This value is very similar to the density of compressed rock.

Interestingly there appear to be mass concentrations on the lunar surface called mascons for short.  These are particularly noticeable over the lunar maria.  What has probably happen is that the heavier and lighter silicate material has separated out, by some unknown process.  These mascons were picked up when the speed of the orbiting Apollo spacecraft varied from place to place.
The Apollo missions were originally conceived in July 1960.  With greater emphasis being placed on them in May 1961.  This was immediately after Alan Sheperds fifteen minute flight into space.  The Americans had been pipped at the post a number of times by the Russians.  So they were determined to get to the Moon before their rivals.

The aim was to get a man on the Moon before the end of the decade and then return him safely to the Earth.  The first initial missions from Apollo 7 through to Apollo 10 paved the way for the first official manned lunar landing.
The dream was realised on 21st July 1969, when Neil Armstrong stepped on to the sea of Tranquility and spoke the now famous words ?that?s one small step for a man, but one giant leap for mankind?.  He was shortly followed onto the Moons surface by Edwin Aldrin, leaving Michael Collins behind in the command module orbiting the Moon.

The astronauts spent about two hours on the lunar surface doing scientific experiments.  This included collecting moon rock and dust, putting a laser reflector into the lunar soil (to measure the Earth to Moon distance) and testing for Moonquakes.  Both Armstrong and Aldrin made a number of observations, which were later confirmed by other astronauts.

?1  There was an eerie silence (sound cannot travel in the vacuum of space).

?2  The sky was very black (this could eventually be an ideal place to do Astronomy from particularly the optical variety).

?3  The horizon was very small, close and appeared to dip downwards (this is because the Moon is a smaller body ).

?4  The lunar soil appeared to have a distinctly bad odour (maybe the powdered silicates had been scorched by the Sun).

The site of Apollo 11 had really been chosen for its safety.  Future missions would land in more interesting and daring places.  Furthermore the scientific testing would be more rigorous and longer.  Despite the astronauts relatively brief visit to the surface, the mission was a resounding success.

The Apollo 12 mission landed only two hundred metres away from an earlier craft called Surveyor 3.  This showed that the Apollo crew had a lot of control over where they landed in a particular area.  The target area was in a large lava basin called the Ocean of Storms, near a 56 mile wide crater called Copernicus.  Scientists believed that there would be impact ejecta from this crater in the landing area, which could of course be collected and then brought back to Earth for analysis.

The Apollo 13 spacecraft failed to land on the Moons surface, because the engine exploded about 50,000 miles from the lunar surface.  This led to a dramatic recovery, which resulted in all three of the astronauts being brought back safely to the Earth.

The Apollo 14 mission included two rookies (new boys) Edgar Mitchell and Stuart Roosa, coupled with that they had an experienced member Alan Shepard (who was the first American in space).  Shepard at the time was forty seven and was by far the oldest crew member on any of the Apollo flights.
Touchdown was near a collapsed crater called Frau Mauro, where samples were taken.  Shepard and Roosa actually got lost on the Moon trying to find Cone crater.  For much of the time they were within reach of the rim, but were unaware of it.
The last three missions Apollo?s 15,16,17 saw the introduction of a roving vehicle, this enabled the astronauts to travel wider a field and collect a larger variety of rock samples.  More adventurous landing sites were chosen, including highland regions.

The three week quarantine operation was stopped because it became apparent that the Moon was completely sterile and devoid of any kind of biological material. Nothing could survive there.
The Apollo 15 mission landed in the Hadley Rille area, this feature is a long winding rift valley about one hundred miles long and probably half a mile deep.  The target area was within reach of Hadley mountain (a 7000 foot high feature).  This was visited by the astronauts.

The Apollo 16 mission visited the lunar highland region called Descartes.  It was by far the most dangerous terrain encountered.  This time astronauts had the opportunity to collect highland material, which is lighter in colour than the lava plains.

The Apollo 17 mission studied the Taurus-Littrow region and for the first time a professional geologist was on board.  His name was Harrison Schmitt but was called Jack for short.  Schmitt had problems with his balance and took many tumbles.  He did have an exciting time amongst the lunar rocks.
The site had been chosen because the area had dome shaped features, thought to be volcanic.  On closer inspection they turned out to be less volcanic than expected.  Also some orange soil was found, this turned out to be shocked silicate material which had become glassy by rapid heating.
With each new mission we were seeing:-

?1  An increase in the time, that the astronauts were spending on the lunar surface, collecting rocks and doing scientific investigations.  Compare Apollo 11 (2 hours), with Apollo 17 (22 hours).

?2  An increase in the amount of lunar rock collected from the surface.  Compare Apollo 11 (48 pounds), with Apollo 17 (250 pounds).

?3  An increase in confidence and know how of the astronauts on the lunar surface and a greater awareness by mission control of the lunar environment.

The six different lunar landing sites, were all carefully planned in advance.  With each set of rocks turning up there own little mysteries.  There were chemical and physical differences, but basically the rocks contained mixtures of silicates, which are found on the Earth.
These Apollo missions uncovered some but certainly not all of the Moons secrets.  lt is still not certain where the Moon originated from, many still think that it could have formed from the Earth.  lt is likely however that it formed as a separate body, because there are many rare elements contained within the rocks.  These are much less abundant in the Earths crust.
Undoubtedly humans will set foot on the moon again, but probably this time to establish colonies. it is still not certain when this will occur, as plans are still on the drawing board. Certainly there is plenty of potential for the different aspects of astronomy to be studied in minute detail on the lunar surface.

What Will The European Eclipse Weather Be Like On August 11, 1999?
By Jay Anderson,  NASA / Goddard Space Flight Center
Adapted by Ivor Clarke

To witness a total eclipse of the Sun is a privilege that comes to but few people.  Once seen, however, it is a phenomenon never to be forgotten.  The black body of the Moon standing out... in sinister relief between Sun and Earth, the sudden outflashing glory and radiance of the pearly corona which can be seen at no other time, the scarlet prominences rising from the surface of the hidden Sun to heights of many thousand miles, the unaccustomed presence of the brighter stars and planets in the daytime, the darkness of twilight and the unusual chill in the air.  There is something in it all that affects even the strongest nerves and it is almost with a sigh of relief that we hail the return of the friendly Sun.
Isabel M. Lewis, 1924  A Handbook of Solar Eclipses

The British Isles

Of all of the countries of Europe, the British Isles is the most exposed to the varying weather from the mobile westerly air flows of the North Atlantic.  While blessed with mild winters, the dampness, cool summers and meteorological exposure to the westerlies has lead to the pronouncement that the British Isles have ?no climate, only weather.*  Historically, Britain has appealed more to invading northern peoples rather than those from the south.  The former found the warm moist climate an improvement on their homelands, while to the latter, especially the French, it appeared illogical to covet such a cloudy, damp and windy land.  While good for the ?English lawn, the damp gray skies will not find favour at eclipse time.

But fairness dictates that we note the eclipse comes at the height of summer over the sunniest parts of the English countryside.  Land?s End and the south coast of England offer the best prospects for sunshine anywhere in the Isles, and so by good fortune the eclipse track is located to its best advantage.
The upper air currents which carry the weather systems onto the islands are predominantly westerly.  The main track of invading low pressure centers is north of Scotland, but trailing cold fronts frequently drag across England as these disturbances pass, bringing persistent cloudiness and precipitation. The cooler, drier high pressure systems following these fronts do not always improve the sky conditions, as the colder airmass is often unstable and speckles the afternoon landscape with showers or thunderstorms.

Periodic blocking patterns occasionally interrupt the alternating stream of highs and lows, bringing episodes of stable unchanging weather. This interruption in the variable weather pattern may or may not favour the eclipse observer depending on where the block develops.  If the circulation over the islands is anticyclonic, as when a high builds northward from the Azures anticyclone or takes up residence over western France, then sunny dry weather will dominate, likely for several days.  However, when cyclonic circulations settle in, especially if the low center lingers over England, dull gray skies will dominate.

Long term studies suggest that a variable westerly flow can be found about 28% of the time, cyclonic blocking for 24% and anticyclonic patterns for 23%.  Suitable eclipse-viewing weather will be found during anticyclonic days and possibly in the wake of cold fronts during the changeable westerly weather.  In the wake of a cold frontal passage, coastal areas are more likely to have sunshine than interior locations as the cooling effect of the nearby ocean suppresses the development of convective cloud.  This distinction is often enhanced by the formation of sea breeze circulations which can bring a zone of clear skies along the waterfront to an otherwise cloudy day.  The zone of clearing will extend inland at best for only a few kilometers depending on the precise nature of the onshore winds.

Realistically, however, climate statistics suggest that England is the least suitable land location from which to view the eclipse except for parts of India and Pakistan where monsoon cloudiness dominates.  The satellite-derived climatology shows a mean cloud cover of 50% to 65% across southern England.  Surface observations show an average of 5.8 to 6.5 days of the month with scattered cloud and good visibility, slightly lower than much of the rest of western Europe, but only a third of the cloud-free days available in Bulgaria and Romania, and a quarter to a fifth the number of days in the best locations in Turkey and Iran.  This rather heavy cloudiness culminates in a meagre 43% of the possible sunshine at Land?s End and The Lizzard, which are among the sunniest spots in England thanks to the suppression of convective cloud by sea breezes and a slightly closer position to the semi-permanent anticyclone over the Azures.  The effect of these two factors is minor but detectable and can be seen by comparing statistics for Plymouth and The Lizzard.

Data collected at the former show a frequency of scattered cloud and good visibility of 5.8 days per month.  At The Lizzard this statistic improves slightly to 6.5 days per month.  Most climatological studies concede a five to ten percent increase in sunshine to the coastal sites over those inland, but much of this advantage is only realized during unstable convective days, such as those found behind a cold front.  This promises a stationary observer only a 45% chance of seeing the eclipse in southern England.

Whatever the cause, low level stratiform clouds are the most likely type of cloud along the south coast.  These clouds form as warm maritime air approaches from the south and moves over the colder waters of the nearby English Channel.  Such clouds typically cover three-quarters of the sky when present, making a clear patch difficult to find.  The best location to find a gap in this kind of cloud cover is to seek shelter against the southerly flow behind the low range of hills which define the spine of Cornwall so that low level winds are flowing downhill and dying the air.

The hills near the center line between Penzance and The Lizard do not accord much protection, in part because they are not quite oriented to lie across the likely direction of the wind.  In the event of a heavy layer of low cloud, the eclipse watcher is best advised to sacrifice some of the duration of the eclipse and head northeast along the highway toward Bodmin, leaving the center line behind.  It?s a small chance, but the best that can be offered under the circumstances.

France. Germany & Austria

Crossing the English Channel the eclipse track touches down in France over Dieppe and continues across northern France over Amiens and Beauvias, just missing Paris and EuroDisney and continuing on over the cities of Reims, Metz, Saarbruken and Strasbourg.

During the summer months, the ?European monsoon* sets in across the western half of the continent, this is a period of cloudy and showery weather which begins with the onset of westerly winds in mid June and continues into September. At other times of the year the prevailing wind direction aloft is more variable, bringing alternating spells of warm and cold weather.  This does not imply that cold air does not spread southward in summer, for cold spells with unstable weather come at intervals of a week or two with frequent weak disturbances bringing showers and thunderstorms.  Intervals between disturbances often come with fine and dry weather.

Prolonged dry weather in Europe comes when a high pressure system builds northward from the Azures anticyclone.
The varied topography through Germany and Austria creates a wealth of climatic sub-regions, but these are defined more by temperature and precipitation differences than in cloudiness. Cloud patterns are strongly modified by the higher mountain ranges, particularly the Alps and Jura Mountains to the south of the eclipse track, but the main effect of these barriers is to create cloud rather than dissipate it.  The prevailing westerly and northwesterly winds are forced to rise up these slopes, cooling and causing clouds to form.

Southerly winds, flowing over the mountains toward the eclipse track, would tend to dissipate the cloud and bring dry sunny weather on the downhill side (a process known as a foehn wind in Europe), but southerlies are relatively rare during August and the benefits of the mountain barrier are not likely to be realized.
In spite of the influence of the Alps, there is a steady trend to sunnier skies as the eclipse track proceeds across Europe, and the distance from the Atlantic moisture source increases.

The percent frequency of clear skies is about 18% over Normandy on the Channel coast and barely rises above 20% throughout the length of the eclipse track over the rest of France.  However, beyond this point the maritime character of the westerly winds becomes more continental, and sunshine frequency begins a slow climb through Germany and Austria.  This improving trend is interrupted briefly through central Austria where a branch of the Alps reaches down to the eclipse track and brings an increase in cloudiness.  The effect is quite dramatic in the number of hours of sunshine in summer drops nearly 25% across middle of Austria in comparison with its eastern and western borders.

Mean August cloudiness decreases from 60% near Cornwall to 50% near Paris.  The mean number of hours of sunshine grows from 6.5 over France to just over 8 hours in Austria, with a matching increase in the frequency of scattered cloud conditions.  There is little difference in the prospects between Land?s End and Paris, but then a slowly growing probability of seeing the eclipse through Germany and Austria.

There is not much to recommend one part of the track over another other than to suggest that eclipse viewers head eastward to take advantage of the slow climatological improvement.  A much more reliable option is to simply await the weather forecasts in the days ahead of the eclipse and pick a site which is forecast to be sunny. While long range forecasts are available out to ten days, they do not become particularly reliable until about five days in advance of the event.

Summing up then, and extracting the smallest details from the statistical record, the best sites along the center line in France will be found from Compiegne, past Reims, to Metz, though the advantage gained is very small.  In Germany the most suitable climatology is found from Ulm past Munich to the Austrian border.  In Austria, climatology favours a location near the Hungarian border south of Vienna, though a location near the German border comes in as a close second.

Eastern Europe to the Black Sea

As the track leaves Austria, it also draws away from the influence of westerly winds which have controlled the meteorology up to this point.  In summer, the Danubian plains over southern Hungary are affected more by the Mediterranean climate advancing northward from the Adriatic Sea than from the march of Atlantic disturbances. The pronounced effect on cloud cover and the amount of sunshine leaves little doubt that the best European eclipse conditions will be found in Hungary, Romania, and Bulgaria.
For the most part the path follows the lowlands along the Danube River and is protected from stronger weather systems by the Carpathian Mountains in the north and the Balkan Mountains in the south.  Prevailing winds blow lightly from the north or northwest, being drawn into a large low pressure system which forms over Iran in the summer.  These etesian winds bring dry invigorating air which is constant in direction and speed.  Precipitation is mostly in the form of showers and thunderstorms, and tends to be greatest where the winds blow upslope - generally on the northem slopes of the Balkan Mountains.

From Hungary, the eclipse track begins to cross the cloud isotherms at a sharper angle eastward with the result that the mean August cloud amount has dropped to about 45% at the shores of the Black Sea.  The amount of sunshine climbs above ten hours per day, more than 70% of the maximum possible.  The number of days with scattered cloud or less at eclipse time rises from about half the month near the Austrian border to nearly two-thirds over Bulgaria.  The probability of seeing the eclipse reaches 63% at the Black Sea ports of Vama and Constanta, popular summer destinations with beaches and fine Roman ruins to attract visitors and eclipse-seekers.

Thunderstorms have a relatively high frequency of occurrence in eastern Europe and bring considerable cloudiness when present.  But this convective cloud relies on the heating of the ground for much of its development, unless pushed by cold fronts or other weather disturbances.  Because of this, cloud cover statistics tend to underestimate the chances of seeing an eclipse which takes place in the morning hours or in the early afternoon.  The maximum time of thunderstorm development occurs at 6 pm local time, well after the noon hour date for the eclipse.  Indeed, the cooling associated with the eclipse may delay the onset of convection for another hour or two.  The path crosses Hungary?s Lake Balaton, a popular resort area of warm water and sandy beaches.  At one time the border between the Ottoman and Hapsburg empires ran down the center of the lake, and a number of ruined castles dot the northern hills above the lake.  The location is easily reached from Budapest.

The weather in Hungary is normally stable in summer with occasional long periods (3-4 weeks) of high pressure, cloudless skies and a dry atmosphere. The last 20 years of weather records for the week on either side of the eclipse date have only three days out of the 300 were without sunshine at stations along the track.  Sunshine is the overwhelming character of the day, with nearly two thirds of the records showing more than ten hours each day.  This is mirrored by statistics for Keszthely (?cast-eye?), a resort and service town on the western shore of Lake Balaton.

The 14 days of the month in which scattered cloud is reported at eclipse time at this location is the best in Hungary and comparable with sites in Romania and Bulgaria.  Lake Balaton seems to have more than its share of sunny weather, likely a result of the protection afforded by the surrounding heights.
Just after its point of maximum eclipse, the Moon?s shadow crosses Bucharest, the capital of Romania.  This city of two million promises to be a prime eclipse-viewing site, in part because of the comfort and ease of access, and partly because of the excellent weather prospects and the long eclipse duration.
Since the center line neatly bisects the city, eclipse-viewing can be done from the wide boulevards or one of the many city parks.

The Black Sea and Turkey

The sum of all of the climatological measures points to Hungary, Bulgaria and Romania as the choicest locations in Europe for viewing this event.  The shores of the Black Sea offer the greatest prospects of success, with a generous sunny climate enhanced by sea breeze circulations.  Other suitable spots can be found all along the track from Lake Balaton eastward.  To get any better weather prospects, the eclipse location will have to move to the other side of the Black Sea.

Once across the Black Sea, the lunar shadow?s eastward mach moves into the best weather conditions.  Weather in the region is dominated by an extension of the large monsoon low over India and Pakistan.  While low pressure systems are normally associated with cloud and rain, this particular low lies beneath an upper level high which suppresses the formation of cloud.  A weak frontal system extends from northern Iran to the Mediterranean coast, separating moderate temperature and moisture on the north side from the semi-arid airmasses to the south.

Upper level winds tend to flow from the west in northern Turkey and from the east in more southerly parts along the track.  The narrow coastal plain along the Black Sea coast of Turkey has a Mediterranean climate and represents the airmasses north of the front.  This area has sufficient moisture to grow figs, olives, tea and tobacco.  Most of the rain falls in winter, but steady northwest winds in the summer season bring occasional convective clouds with showers and thunderstorms.

The eclipse comes ashore at a remote part of the Turkish coastline near the town of Cide.  To the east of the shadow path is Sinop, an ancient city of Greek and Byzantine origins.  Its most famous native son was Diogenes the Cynic, who is reputed to have replied to Alexander the Great when asked what Alexander could do for him, ?Yes, stand aside, you?re blocking my light? - a perfect quotation (though not sentiment) to go with a solar eclipse.  The scenic road to the center line winds closely along the coast, forced to the edge of the sea by a range of 2000 meter mountains which line the Black Sea coast.  Cide, a few kilometers inland from the sea, has a 10 km long pebbly beach nearby which could provide a site to watch the eclipse.  Travel time from Sinop to Cide is about two hours.  West of the center line is the regional capital Zonguldak, slightly closer than Sinop, and with good transportation connections to Ankara.

The steady onshore winds along the coast promote the development of convective cloudiness as they rise up the mountain slopes which line the sea, but cloud statistics for Cide and Sinop promise weather at least as favourable as on the Bulgarian coast.  Farther south, the track reaches Sim on the eastern edge of the Anatolian Plateau.  This city of magnificent monuments has a long history.  Cloud rises rapidly here as downslope winds from the surrounding mountains dry the air.  Much of the meagre cloudiness is due to occasional summer thunderstorms, though the incidence of rainy days is dwindling rapidly.  Nevertheless, some of these thunderstorms can bring violent